City-killer asteroid chances of hitting Moon increase slightly

NASA has raised the odds that asteroid 2024 YR4, a fast-moving object roughly the size of a 10-story building, could hit the Moon in December 2032. While the chance is still small, the updated forecast does note an increased impact risk that the city-killer asteroid will strike the Moon.

Originally discovered in December 2024, asteroid 2024 YR4 has been under constant observation. At first, scientists estimated the asteroid’s size based on visible light measurements from Earth-based telescopes. But thanks to new infrared data from the James Webb Space Telescope, the asteroid’s size has been more precisely calculated, and they estimate it to be between 174 and 220 feet across.

An asteroid that size is more than big enough to leave a significant mark if it makes contact with Earth or our Moon. NASA’s latest analysis of the city-killer asteroid’s Moon impact risk was performed by the agency’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies.

Image source: NASA JPL/CNEOS

Those reports increased the probability of a Moon impact from 1.7 percent to 3.8 percent. That still leaves a 96.2 percent chance the asteroid will miss. However, this shift represents a meaningful jump in odds. If the asteroid were to collide with the lunar surface, scientists say it would likely create a visible crater, though it wouldn’t affect the Moon’s orbit or Earth’s safety.

Initially, astronomers believed that asteroid 2024 YR4 had a chance of striking Earth. Luckily, these notions were pretty quickly ruled out with more observations. However, we’ll soon lose sight of the city-killer asteroid as it streaks away from us. It will make another pass in 2028, which is when astronomers hope to learn more about its risk of impacting the Moon.

Until then, all we can do is speculate about the risks. Luckily, NASA has a proven way to deal with these kinds of threats, thanks to successful tests with the D.A.R.T. spacecraft. But mounting another mission like that before the asteroid makes a close approach to Earth in 2032 might be difficult, given the current state of things.

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City-killer asteroid chances of hitting Moon increase slightly originally appeared on BGR.com on Fri, 4 Apr 2025 at 18:19:00 EDT. Please see our terms for use of feeds.