Human-level AI is just a few ‘miracles’ away, Microsoft pioneer Nathan Myhrvold says

Will artificial intelligence ever catch up with human intelligence? And if it does, is humanity doomed? Intellectual Ventures CEO Nathan Myhrvold, who had the job of predicting the future of tech during Microsoft’s early years, was ready with some answers at GeekWire’s Microsoft@50 anniversary event Thursday night.

The feature that AI still lacks is the ability to create a new abstract concept, “imbue it with meaning and then reason about it,” said Myhrvold, who joined Microsoft in 1986 and served as the company’s first chief technology officer.

“I think we’ll get there, but that’s at least one miracle that needs to be figured out, and I variously have thought there was like three to five miracles that need to be done. Who knows?” he said during the event at Town Hall Seattle. “And that could happen tomorrow, or maybe it already happened tonight, and they just haven’t told us. Or it could take another 10 years.”

GeekWire co-founder Todd Bishop returned to the topic a minute later. “Did I hear correctly that we’re three to five miracles away from AI that’s as powerful or as intelligent as humans?” he asked.

“Yes,” Myhrvold replied.

When it comes to tech predictions, Myhrvold has chalked up more hits than strikeouts. Three decades ago, he foresaw a time when computers would merge with consumer electronic devices like telephones, when videos would be available online and on demand rather than on tape cassettes, and when long-distance voice calls would essentially be bundled for free with data services.

Today, it doesn’t take a tech guru to see that AI is becoming more capable, and that Microsoft is taking a leading role in partnership with OpenAI. But Myhrvold said the field is moving so fast that it’s hard to predict what will happen exactly when.

“Two years ago, you wouldn’t have guessed where we were today,” Myhrvold said. “There was a small set of people at OpenAI and at Microsoft who believed a crazy proposition — which is, if only we pour billions of dollars of computing at it, we’ll get there. They had some reasons, but people had tried the same thing with AI many times since the 1960s, and it had not been successful. So, it wasn’t a foregone conclusion, but that’s the kind of calculated risk you have to take. And that’s partially how Microsoft has gotten to be in one of the best positions in AI, because they were able to take that calculated risk.”

Myhrvold said he would compare the state of AI today to the state of the personal computer industry in the 1980s. “I think its potential is enormously higher, and that’s going to require a whole lot of work by a whole lot of folks,” he said.

The important thing now is to figure out how best to use AI. “That’s what application programming is all about,” Myhrvold said. “It’s about saying, ‘Well, gee, I can move bits around the screen, but now I can have Microsoft Word put nice letters together and have fonts, and I can make documents, and I can make presentations.'”

Today’s generative-AI agents may be able to churn out a serviceable limerick or Shakespearean sonnet, but there should be far more practical innovations ahead, Myhrvold said. “We’ve only scratched the surface,” he added.

Microsoft Word can be used to write a bestselling novel or a terrorist manifesto, and AI might well be used for a similar range of applications. But Myhrvold said he doesn’t worry about AI overlords eventually enslaving humanity.

“We love having really scary, nasty villains that aren’t actually real,” he said. “So, Sauron — OK, none of us felt personally threatened by Sauron. The Night King and his army of the undead? They’re not really going to get us either. And so when people conjure up these stories about AI overlords destroying all of us, it’s very similar to that.”

Other highlights from Myhrvold’s fireside chat:

• As he reviewed his history at Microsoft, Myhrvold acknowledged that his powers of prediction weren’t infallible. He said he told Bill Gates in 1987 that Microsoft would become the world’s most valuable company and that Gates would become the world’s richest person. “And it would take 10 years,” he recalled saying. “I was totally wrong. It took three.”
• In addition to his role as CEO of Bellevue, Wash.-based Intellectual Ventures, Myhrvold serves as vice chairman of TerraPower, the nuclear power venture founded by Gates. Myhrvold said next-generation nuclear power will have to be part of the solution for the challenge of rapidly rising energy demand — a challenge made all the more challenging by the proliferation of power-hungry data servers for cloud computing and AI processing. “You have to think of a world in which the total energy demand in this next century grows by a factor of five to 10,” he said.
• Myhrvold is the author of several science-oriented cookbooks, including “Modernist Cuisine,” “Modernist Bread” and “Modernist Pizza.” The focus of his latest culinary composition is pastry. “We do use AI for that,” he said. Myhrvold said he and his collaborators have compiled a massive database of recipes, including more than 1,000 recipes for chocolate chip cookies. “We can then analyze them statistically and figure out, ‘Why so many recipes? What would the best one be like?'”

Sponsor Post

Accenture proudly joins GeekWire in recognizing Microsoft’s 50th anniversary, marking over 35 years as a trusted partner and change driver.

Our global team provides comprehensive services spanning 150 countries across Microsoft’s entire enterprise. Our unique alliance with Microsoft and Avanade is one-of-a-kind and positions us to deliver transformation and innovation for the next 50 years and beyond.

Want to learn more about Accenture’s capabilities?

Click for more about underwritten and sponsored content on GeekWire.